🇳🇬 Nigeria Stability Index
Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) took office May 29, 2023, succeeding Muhammadu Buhari. His inauguration speech immediately announced fuel subsidy removal — single largest economic reform in two decades.
Two anchor shocks (mid-2023):
- Fuel subsidy removal: Pump prices roughly tripled overnight, eliminating ~$10B/yr in subsidies but creating acute cost-of-living stress
- Naira float: CBN unified official + parallel rates, ending years of multiple-rate FX management. Naira lost ~70% vs USD in 18 months
Cabinet anchors: Wale Edun (Finance), Yemi Cardoso (CBN Governor, replaced Godwin Emefiele Sep 2023), Olu Verheijen (Special Adviser, Energy).
Political stress signals: Labour Congress strikes, organized hardship protests (#EndBadGovernance Aug 2024), state-level wage disputes, persistent inflation (~30% headline).
Northeast Nigeria has been at war with jihadist insurgencies since 2009. The original Boko Haram movement has split into multiple factions, all still active across the Lake Chad Basin.
Active groups:
- JAS (Boko Haram core): Founded by Mohammed Yusuf 2002, led by Abubakar Shekau until his death by ISWAP (May 2021). Weakened but still active in Sambisa Forest area
- ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province): Broke from Boko Haram 2016; now dominant faction; centered in Lake Chad islands and northern Borno
- Ansaru: Smaller Al-Qaeda-aligned faction in northwestern Nigeria
- Lakurawa: New armed group identified late 2024 in Sokoto/Kebbi — early signs suggest external (Sahel) ideological roots
Counter-insurgency: Operation Hadin Kai (current Army op), MNJTF (Nigeria+Cameroon+Chad+Niger+Benin coalition), Civilian JTF militias, U.S. Green Beret training programs.
Key theaters: Borno (Maiduguri, Bama, Konduga, Damasak), Yobe (Damaturu, Buni Yadi), Adamawa, Lake Chad islands.
The Niger Delta produces Nigeria's oil but suffers some of the worst environmental damage on Earth. Oil theft / illegal bunkering costs Nigeria an estimated 250-400k bpd — among the highest theft rates globally.
Historical militancy:
- MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta): Active 2006-2009; pipeline sabotage, hostage-taking; amnesty program 2009 demobilized most fighters
- Niger Delta Avengers (NDA): Resurgent 2016 with pipeline attacks; faded but groups remain dormant capability
- Tantita Security: Government Tompolo (ex-MEND commander) contracted as anti-bunkering force — controversial but reportedly effective
Operating environment: Shell (SPDC), Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Eni operate offshore + onshore; major divestments to local players (Renaissance, Conoil, Seplat) ongoing. NNPC Limited (state company) commercialized 2022. Gulf of Guinea piracy is a related but maritime-specific threat.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery (Lekki Free Trade Zone, Lagos State) is the world's largest single-train refinery at 650,000 bpd capacity. Owned by Aliko Dangote (Africa's richest man, founder of Dangote Group / Dangote Cement).
Operational milestones:
- Commissioned May 22, 2023 by President Buhari
- First crude received Dec 2023
- Diesel + jet fuel production from Q1 2024
- PMS (gasoline) production from Sep 2024 — historic milestone for West African downstream
Strategic implications: Transforms Nigeria + the broader region from gasoline-IMPORTER to potential exporter. Saves Nigeria ~$10B/yr in refined-product imports. Tensions with NNPC over crude supply pricing (USD vs naira) and downstream pricing are ongoing. Major potential disrupter of West African oil-trading flows historically dominated by European refineries (Rotterdam, ARA).
Nigeria is the demographic, economic, and military anchor of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). President Tinubu chaired ECOWAS 2023-2024.
The Sahel rupture (2023-2024):
- Coup belt: Mali (May 2021), Burkina Faso (Sep 2022), Niger (July 2023) — military juntas refused civilian transition
- Niger coup standoff: Tinubu briefly threatened ECOWAS military intervention against Niamey junta (Aug 2023) — political backlash inside Nigeria forced de-escalation
- Sahel Confederation (Jan 2024): Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formally exited ECOWAS Jan 2025
- Russian/Wagner pivot: All three Sahel juntas replaced French + UN missions with Russian Africa Corps presence
Implications for Nigeria: Longer northern borders with non-aligned states; intelligence-sharing reduced; cross-border insurgent flows from Burkina/Mali into northwestern Nigeria intensified.
See: Mali Stability ↗
Nigeria has roughly 220 million people across 250+ ethnic groups in 36 states + FCT Abuja. Three primary ethnic blocs anchor the political system:
- Hausa-Fulani (north): Predominantly Muslim; politically dominant in 12 northern states operating Sharia law (since 1999-2000)
- Yoruba (southwest): Mixed Christian/Muslim; Tinubu's regional base; Lagos commercial heartland
- Igbo (southeast): Predominantly Christian; epicenter of IPOB/Biafran separatist activity
Religious balance: Roughly 50/50 Muslim/Christian split, with the Middle Belt as the fault zone. Farmer-herder conflicts (Fulani pastoralists vs. Berom/Tarok/Tiv farmers in Plateau, Benue, Kaduna) have killed thousands and are increasingly weaponized along religious lines.
IPOB / Biafran movement: Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), led by Nnamdi Kanu (currently detained), and its armed wing ESN (Eastern Security Network) conduct sit-at-home enforcement + clashes with security forces in southeast (Anambra, Imo, Abia).