🦢 Bubble-Fragility Convergence
Endogenous financial-fragility detector · 10 feature classes · seeded from ~100 years of market history
—/ band
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Fragility, not prophecy: this module measures how dry the forest is. The GPI kinetic
and diplomatic axes watch for the lightning.
Active Fragility Signals
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Quiet (watching for these to turn)
Closest Historical Analogs
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⚠️ CONVERGENCE READ, NOT A FORECAST — loading disclaimer…
📊 Conflict Repricing
Does informed capital price each conflict the way the rhetoric layer describes it? · coherence across four instruments · Israel and Europe read the off-ramp; Korea reads whether the tape still flinches at all · updated every 6h
Where fragility asks how dry the forest is, this asks whether the market believes the
ceasefire — it reads the tape against the diplomatic track. The marquee case is the
contradiction: rhetoric signalling an off-ramp while the tape refuses to price it as durable.
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🌎 Americas
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🌍 Europe, Middle East & Africa
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🌏 Asia-Pacific
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📚 Historical Pattern Library
The detector is calibrated against ~100 years of market history. Episode labels are
historical fact; their feature sets and lead times are computed from the data,
not asserted. Exogenous shocks (9/11, COVID) are included as null cases —
the detector should stay quiet before them, because broad markets carry no reliable
pre-signal for a bolt from the blue. That is a feature, not a miss. The year strip below
is the detector's entire backtested life: Normal
Elevated
High
Critical.
| Episode | Type | Event | Lead (mo) at elevated+ | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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