🇮🇷 IRAN PROTESTS TRACKER

🔄 UPDATE PENDING: This section is being updated to reflect the impact of US-Israel strikes on nuclear facilities. IAEA assessment ongoing. Check back for verified updates.

Iran's nuclear program remains a critical regional security concern. Following U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment activities.

Pre-War Status (as of Feb 2026):

• Enrichment Levels: Iran enriched uranium up to 60% purity (weapons-grade is 90%), with stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits
• Centrifuge Installations: Advanced IR-6 centrifuges installed at Natanz and Fordow facilities — both sites struck in Feb 28 attacks; damage assessment ongoing
• IAEA Access: Limited inspections; Iran removed surveillance cameras in 2022. Post-strike access status unknown
• Breakout Time: Previously estimated at weeks to months — impact of strikes on timeline unknown
• Negotiations: JCPOA talks effectively dead following outbreak of hostilities

⚠️ WARTIME UPDATE (March 2026): Iran has deployed its missile and drone arsenal in combat following US-Israel strikes on Feb 28, 2026. Systems previously assessed as theoretical capabilities have now been used operationally.

Combat-Proven Systems (Feb-Mar 2026):

• Ballistic Missiles vs Israel: Iran launched retaliatory ballistic missile salvos at Israeli territory; intercepted by Arrow-3 and David's Sling with partial success
• Ballistic Missiles vs US Bases: Strikes reported on Al Udeid (Qatar), Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain), and facilities in Kuwait; casualties confirmed
• Shahed-136 Drones: Used to enforce Strait of Hormuz closure; at least 3 tankers struck near the strait
• Anti-Ship Missiles: IRGC Navy engaged commercial shipping; multiple vessels damaged or warned off via VHF Channel 16

Pre-War Inventory (assessed):

• Shahab-3: 1,300 km range, liquid-fuel ballistic missile
• Sejjil-2: 2,000 km range, solid-fuel (harder to intercept)
• Kheibar Shekan: 1,450 km range, hypersonic glide vehicle capability
• Shahed-136 Drones: Kamikaze UAVs — combat-proven in Ukraine, Yemen, and now Strait of Hormuz
• Mohajer-6: Armed reconnaissance drone with 200 km range

Post-Strike Status: US-Israel strikes targeted missile production facilities, launch sites, and IRGC C2 nodes. CENTCOM reported destruction of 17 IRGC naval vessels and suppression of air defense systems. Iran's remaining missile inventory is unknown but assessed as degraded.

Proxy Arsenal Activation: Houthis resumed Red Sea attacks on Feb 28. Hezbollah status uncertain following 2025 Lebanon conflict. Iraqi PMF reported launching drones at US positions.

🔄 UPDATE PENDING: Proxy network status is rapidly evolving. Houthi attacks resumed Feb 28. Hezbollah posture post-2025 war uncertain. Iraqi PMF activated. Check back for verified updates.

Iran's "Axis of Resistance" is a network of state and non-state actors across the Middle East that receive military, financial, and political support from Tehran.

Key Proxy Groups:

• Hezbollah (Lebanon): Severely degraded by 2025 Lebanon war; leadership losses including Nasrallah; current operational capacity uncertain
• Houthis (Yemen): Resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping and declared renewed hostilities against Israel on Feb 28, 2026
• Popular Mobilization Forces (Iraq): Coalition of Shia militias; reported drone/missile attacks on US positions in Iraq following Feb 28 strikes
• Hamas & Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza): Severely degraded by ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict; limited operational capacity
• Syrian Government: Post-Assad transition ongoing; Iranian influence diminished

🔄 UPDATE PENDING: Economic conditions have dramatically worsened since the outbreak of hostilities. Strait of Hormuz closure has halted oil exports. Rial in freefall. Check back for verified updates.

Iran faces the most comprehensive sanctions regime in modern history, targeting its energy sector, banking system, shipping, and military procurement.

Key Sanctions Categories:

• Energy Sector: Oil exports fell from 2.5M bpd (2017) to ~1.5M bpd (2024); now effectively zero with Strait of Hormuz closed
• Banking & Finance: Cut off from SWIFT (2018); limited access to international financial system
• IRGC Designation: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps designated as Foreign Terrorist Organization (2019)
• Technology & Dual-Use: Restrictions on advanced computing, aerospace, and industrial equipment
• Humanitarian Exemptions: Food, medicine, and medical devices exempt but delivery severely disrupted by active conflict

Economic Impact: Rial depreciation (98% since 2018), 40%+ inflation, GDP contraction. Wartime conditions have accelerated economic collapse — oil revenue halted, infrastructure destroyed, trade routes closed.

⚠️ WARTIME UPDATE (March 2026): Iran's political structure has been fundamentally disrupted by US-Israel strikes. Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed Feb 28. The succession process has been disrupted by strikes on the Assembly of Experts.

Current Power Vacuum:

• Supreme Leader — KILLED: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed when Leadership House compound destroyed Feb 28, 2026. Death confirmed by multiple sources.
• Succession Crisis: Mujtaba Khamenei (son) is the likely successor, but the Assembly of Experts was struck during its succession session on Mar 2. Casualties among the 88-member body unknown.
• President Pezeshkian — ALIVE (Unconfirmed): No confirmed public appearance since strikes began. Believed alive but governing capacity severely degraded.
• IRGC — C2 Degraded: Command and control infrastructure targeted. 17 naval vessels destroyed. Air defense suppressed. Commander Salami status unknown.
• Parliament — STRUCK: Majles building reported targeted. Speaker Ghalibaf status unknown.

Pre-War Political Structure (for reference):

• Supreme Leader: Controlled military, judiciary, state media; appointed half of Guardian Council
• President (Masoud Pezeshkian, 2024-present): Reformist physician; 9th President; succeeded Ebrahim Raisi who died in helicopter crash May 2024
• IRGC: Parallel military controlling ~40% of economy; Quds Force handled external operations
• Guardian Council: Vetted all candidates; blocked thousands of reformists in 2020-2024 elections
• Parliament (Majles): Speaker Ghalibaf (conservative); limited influence on Supreme Leader decisions

Protests & Dissent: The Mahsa Amini protests (2022-2023) and January 2026 nationwide protests represented the greatest challenges to the regime since 1979. With the Supreme Leader killed and command structure degraded, the regime's ability to suppress future unrest is uncertain.