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Operation Epic Fury — the US military campaign against Iran, conducted alongside Israel's Operation Roaring Lion — began in the final days of February 2026, with sustained major combat operations from March 2. As of this update (June 12, 2026), the conflict remains ongoing despite rumored agreements on a renewed ceasefire and a memorandum of understanding under negotiation.
This has been a region-shaping event: it has driven stability scores across the Middle East theater, sustained elevated kinetic activity (strikes, air defense engagements, maritime incidents), and reordered US geopolitical relationships — with Gulf partners, with Israel, and within the broader sanctions coalition. The Strait of Hormuz closure, the Kharg Island strike, and the succession of Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei all trace to this conflict.
For live indicators, read this page's Regime Stability Index, Conflict Casualties, and Financial Pulse cards — all of which track the war's ongoing effects. Reopening of Hormuz and sanctions-relief language are the lead signals to watch in ceasefire/MOU coverage.
Iran's nuclear program is the central red line of the 2026 conflict. Following U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran enriched uranium to 60% (weapons-grade is 90%) before the February 2026 strikes targeted Natanz, Fordow, and surrounding nuclear infrastructure.
Current Status (post-strike, March-May 2026):
- Natanz: Surface enrichment halls reportedly damaged; underground cascade halls status unclear pending IAEA verification
- Fordow: Deep-buried facility, struck with bunker-busters; damage assessment ongoing — buried infrastructure historically hard to assess
- IAEA Access: Suspended since strikes began; no post-strike inspection mission has been authorized
- Stockpile Status: Iran's pre-strike 60% enriched stockpile location unknown — may be dispersed or relocated
- Mujtaba Khamenei Statements: New Supreme Leader has not publicly committed to or rejected weaponization since assuming role March 14
- JCPOA / Diplomatic Off-Ramp: Backchannel ceasefire talks reported via Oman/Qatar mediation; 45-day proposal floated April 2026
Pre-Strike Trajectory (for reference): Iran was ~2-3 weeks from weapons-grade breakout, with IR-6 centrifuges installed at Natanz/Fordow and limited IAEA visibility since the 2022 surveillance camera removal.
⚠️ WARTIME UPDATE (March 2026): Iran has deployed its missile and drone arsenal in combat following US-Israel strikes on Feb 28, 2026. Systems previously assessed as theoretical capabilities have now been used operationally.
Combat-Proven Systems (Feb-Mar 2026):
- Ballistic Missiles vs Israel: Iran launched retaliatory ballistic missile salvos at Israeli territory; intercepted by Arrow-3 and David's Sling with partial success
- Ballistic Missiles vs US Bases: Strikes reported on Al Udeid (Qatar), Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain), and facilities in Kuwait; casualties confirmed
- Shahed-136 Drones: Used to enforce Strait of Hormuz closure; at least 3 tankers struck near the strait
- Anti-Ship Missiles: IRGC Navy engaged commercial shipping; multiple vessels damaged or warned off via VHF Channel 16
Pre-War Inventory (assessed):
- Shahab-3: 1,300 km range, liquid-fuel ballistic missile
- Sejjil-2: 2,000 km range, solid-fuel (harder to intercept)
- Kheibar Shekan: 1,450 km range, hypersonic glide vehicle capability
- Shahed-136 Drones: Kamikaze UAVs — combat-proven in Ukraine, Yemen, and now Strait of Hormuz
- Mohajer-6: Armed reconnaissance drone with 200 km range
Post-Strike Status: US-Israel strikes targeted missile production facilities, launch sites, and IRGC C2 nodes. CENTCOM reported destruction of 17 IRGC naval vessels and suppression of air defense systems. Iran's remaining missile inventory is unknown but assessed as degraded.
Proxy Arsenal Activation: Houthis resumed Red Sea attacks on Feb 28. Hezbollah status uncertain following 2025 Lebanon conflict. Iraqi PMF reported launching drones at US positions.
Iran's "Axis of Resistance" — the proxy network of Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias, Hamas/PIJ, and (formerly) Assad-Syria — has been severely degraded by 18 months of Israeli action plus the 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran itself, but remains the primary mechanism for Iranian power projection.
Current Operational Status (as of May 2026):
- Hezbollah (Lebanon): Severely degraded by 2025 Lebanon war; Nasrallah killed September 2024; new leadership under Naim Qassem. Limited cross-border activity since outbreak; per Asifah Lebanon stability tracking, primarily defensive posture
- Houthis (Yemen): Resumed Red Sea shipping attacks Feb 28; ballistic missile launches at Israel reported. Bab el-Mandeb pressure paired with Hormuz forms dual chokepoint risk
- Iraqi PMF / Kataib Hezbollah: Drone and rocket attacks on US Al-Asad and Erbil positions reported throughout March-April 2026; Quds Force coordination disrupted by C2 strikes but proxy autonomy maintained
- Hamas & PIJ (Gaza): Largely depleted by 18-month Gaza conflict; limited capacity to project beyond Gaza; Iranian funding continues via opaque channels
- Syria — POST-ASSAD: Assad regime fell December 2024; HTS-led transitional government; Iranian basing/transit infrastructure largely lost. Major strategic setback for axis
Cross-Theater Convergence Risk: Asifah Analytics tracks Iran proxy activation level via shared Redis fingerprints (see Iran Rhetoric Tracker → Proxy Activation Index). Levels ≥4 indicate Iran is directing simultaneous multi-theater operations rather than supporting individual proxies.
Iran faces unprecedented economic pressure — comprehensive sanctions since 2018, layered with active wartime conditions since February 2026. The Iranian economy is in catastrophic state: Hormuz closure has effectively halted oil exports, Kharg Island terminal struck, the Rial trades at ~1.64M/USD on black market (60%+ depreciation in 6 months), and inflation continues accelerating.
Active Pressure Vectors (May 2026):
- Energy: Pre-war ~1.5M bpd → near-zero with Hormuz closed and Kharg Island struck. Oil revenue, the regime's primary lifeline, has effectively stopped
- Sanctions Layer: 2018 maximum pressure regime still in place; expanded post-strike with new financial measures
- Wheat / Bread Stability: Iran imports ~5-7M tonnes/yr (~25-30% of consumption); subsidized bread is the political stability lever — wheat shortage = regime risk (1979 echo). Russian wheat primary source
- Gold Trade: Iran-Russia-China gold barter as sanctions evasion vehicle; Tehran Gold Exchange + bazaar physical demand surging
- Black Market FX: Rial at ~1.64M/USD (vs ~42,000 official); pressure indicates SELLING dominant. See Asifah USD/IRR ticker
- Asset Seizure Regime: Tehran Public Prosecutor announced April 2026 freeze of assets of 100+ Iranian citizens abroad — capital flight indicator
Stability Implication: Asifah tracks bread inflation, gold pressure, and oil revenue collapse via the commodity exposure card above. Wheat surge in commodity tracker triggers a stability score penalty — historically, bread crises preceded the 1979 Revolution.
⚠️ WARTIME UPDATE (March 2026): Iran's political structure has been fundamentally disrupted by US-Israel strikes. Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed Feb 28. The succession process has been disrupted by strikes on the Assembly of Experts.
Current Power Vacuum:
- Supreme Leader — KILLED: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed when Leadership House compound destroyed Feb 28, 2026. Death confirmed by multiple sources.
- Succession Crisis: Mujtaba Khamenei (son) is the likely successor, but the Assembly of Experts was struck during its succession session on Mar 2. Casualties among the 88-member body unknown.
- President Pezeshkian — ALIVE (Unconfirmed): No confirmed public appearance since strikes began. Believed alive but governing capacity severely degraded.
- IRGC — C2 Degraded: Command and control infrastructure targeted. 17 naval vessels destroyed. Air defense suppressed. Commander Salami status unknown.
- Parliament — STRUCK: Majles building reported targeted. Speaker Ghalibaf status unknown.
Pre-War Political Structure (for reference):
- Supreme Leader: Controlled military, judiciary, state media; appointed half of Guardian Council
- President (Masoud Pezeshkian, 2024-present): Reformist physician; 9th President; succeeded Ebrahim Raisi who died in helicopter crash May 2024
- IRGC: Parallel military controlling ~40% of economy; Quds Force handled external operations
- Guardian Council: Vetted all candidates; blocked thousands of reformists in 2020-2024 elections
- Parliament (Majles): Speaker Ghalibaf (conservative); limited influence on Supreme Leader decisions
Protests & Dissent: The Mahsa Amini protests (2022-2023) and January 2026 nationwide protests represented the greatest challenges to the regime since 1979. With the Supreme Leader killed and command structure degraded, the regime's ability to suppress future unrest is uncertain.