🇻🇪 VENEZUELA STABILITY INDEX

Venezuela is undergoing a contested political transition following the disputed 2024 presidential election in which Nicolás Maduro claimed victory despite widespread evidence of fraud. Opposition leader Edmundo González and María Corina Machado contested the results, supported by the U.S. and most of Latin America. Maduro retained control through the military and security apparatus.

Armed Factions: Maduro's government relies on colectivos — armed pro-government paramilitary groups — alongside the military and intelligence services (SEBIN, DGCIM) to maintain control. These groups operate with impunity and carry out political repression.

Venezuela hosts some of the most dangerous criminal and insurgent networks in the hemisphere. The Colombian guerrilla group ELN operates freely in border states including Apure, Táchira, and Zulia, conducting mining, drug trafficking, and extortion. FARC dissident groups also maintain a presence near the Colombian border.

Tren de Aragua: This transnational criminal organization, originating in Venezuelan prisons, has expanded into Chile, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and the United States. Its expansion is a direct product of Venezuela's state collapse.

Venezuela experienced one of the worst economic collapses in modern Latin American history — GDP fell over 80% between 2013 and 2021. Hyperinflation, dollarization, and collapse of the oil industry decimated living standards. The economy has partially stabilized through dollarization but remains fragile.

U.S. Sanctions: The U.S. maintains comprehensive sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, government, and military officials. Sanctions have contributed to economic pressure but have also complicated humanitarian response.

Over 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country — one of the largest displacement crises in the world, comparable to Syria. Receiving countries including Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, and Brazil have faced significant social and economic strain from the influx.

Internal conditions include chronic shortages of food, medicine, and electricity. The health system has largely collapsed, with hospitals lacking basic supplies. Malaria, tuberculosis, and other preventable diseases have resurged.