🇨🇺 CUBA STABILITY INDEX

Cuba is governed by the Communist Party of Cuba under President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who succeeded Raúl Castro in 2021. The party apparatus, military, and MININT retain control. The regime faces its most serious legitimacy crisis in decades following the 2021 protests.

11J Protests (2021): The July 11, 2021 protests were the largest in Cuba since 1994. Over 1,000 remain imprisoned with sentences up to 25 years.

Cuba faces a severe energy crisis with rolling blackouts lasting 12–20 hours per day in many provinces. The electricity grid relies on aging Soviet-era infrastructure. In 2024, the national grid collapsed multiple times leaving the entire island without power for days.

Economic conditions include hyperinflation, severe shortages of food and medicine. Remittances from the Cuban diaspora are a lifeline.

U.S.–Cuba relations remain deeply adversarial. The U.S. embargo (in place since 1962) continues. Cuba is designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism. The U.S. Embassy in Havana operates with reduced staff and limited consular services.

Migration: Cuba’s crisis has driven record migration to the United States, with hundreds of thousands arriving via the southern border.

Cuba’s healthcare system — once a point of national pride — has deteriorated sharply due to lack of medicines and emigration of trained personnel. Food insecurity is widespread.

Migration wave: Cuba lost an estimated 500,000+ people between 2022 and 2024 — roughly 5% of its population — to emigration.