🇸🇾 SYRIA CONFLICT TRACKER

Post-Assad Security Landscape: Following the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024, Syria has fragmented into multiple zones of control with competing armed factions vying for territorial dominance.

Major Armed Groups:

• Syrian National Army (SNA): Turkish-backed opposition forces controlling parts of northern Syria
• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish-led coalition controlling northeastern Syria
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Islamist group controlling Idlib and surrounding areas
• ISIS Remnants: Sleeper cells active in desert regions and displacement camps
• Local Militias: Various tribal and regional armed groups

Primary Flashpoints: Clashes frequently occur along factional boundaries, particularly in Aleppo countryside, Deir ez-Zor, and areas surrounding displacement camps like al-Hol.

Violence Patterns: Post-regime violence includes inter-factional fighting, revenge killings, ISIS attacks on security forces, and tribal conflicts over resource control.

Economic Collapse: Syria's economy has contracted by more than 60% since 2011, with currency devaluation, hyperinflation, and widespread poverty.

Resource Control:

• Oil and gas: Primary fields in SDF-controlled northeast; limited production and smuggling networks
• Agriculture: Key breadbasket regions divided among factions; drought and infrastructure damage reduce output
• Trade routes: Border crossings and supply routes controlled by various armed groups

Currency Crisis: Syrian pound has lost over 95% of pre-war value; multiple exchange rates; dollarization in some regions; reliance on remittances.

Economic Activity: Formal economy largely collapsed; informal and black markets dominate; smuggling networks; war economy sustains armed factions; reconstruction minimal due to sanctions and insecurity.

Sanctions Impact: US and EU sanctions restrict reconstruction investment, complicate aid delivery, and limit banking access, though humanitarian exemptions exist.

Governance Vacuum: The collapse of centralized Assad regime control has created a patchwork of competing governance structures, with no unified authority emerging.

De Facto Administrations:

• Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES): Kurdish-led self-governance in northeastern regions
• Syrian Salvation Government: HTS-controlled administration in Idlib
• Turkish-backed councils: Local governance structures in SNA-controlled areas
• Tribal councils: Traditional governance in eastern and southern regions

Political Transition Challenges: Efforts at political transition face obstacles including factional competition, external interference, sectarian divisions, and absence of inclusive representation mechanisms.

International Engagement: UN-led Geneva process remains stalled; regional powers pursue competing political visions; reconstruction aid conditioned on political reforms.

External Involvement: Multiple regional and international actors maintain military presence and political influence in Syria's post-Assad landscape.

Turkey:

• Controls northern buffer zones through proxy forces (SNA)
• Primary objective: prevent Kurdish autonomy along border
• Hosts 3.6+ million Syrian refugees
• Conducts periodic military operations against SDF

Iran:

• Maintains limited military presence despite Assad regime collapse
• Supports aligned militias in strategic areas
• Interested in preserving land corridor to Lebanon
• Faces resource constraints limiting engagement

Russia:

• Maintains military bases at Tartus and Hmeimim
• Reduced military footprint post-Assad
• Focus on preserving strategic coastal access
• Limited appetite for large-scale intervention

United States:

• Partners with SDF in counter-ISIS operations
• Maintains approximately 900 troops in northeast
• Controls strategic oil fields in partnership with SDF
• Enforces sanctions regime

Israel:

• Conducts periodic airstrikes against Iranian positions
• Occupies Golan Heights buffer zone
• Primary concern: preventing Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah

Gulf States: Gradually re-engaging diplomatically; Arab League readmitted Syria in 2023; limited reconstruction investment pending political settlement.

Displacement Crisis: Syria faces one of the world's largest displacement crises with millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees in neighboring countries.

IDP Demographics:

• Camp populations: Approximately 1 million people in formal camps including al-Hol, Roj, and northern settlements
• Informal settlements: Additional millions in makeshift camps and urban displacement
• Recent displacement: Post-Assad factional fighting has triggered new waves of internal displacement

Humanitarian Access: Aid delivery is hampered by factional control of territory, cross-border restrictions, damaged infrastructure, and security threats to aid workers.

Critical Needs: Food insecurity affects majority of population; medical services severely degraded; water and sanitation infrastructure damaged; education systems disrupted; protection concerns especially for women and children.

Infrastructure Collapse: Years of conflict have devastated critical infrastructure including power grids, water systems, roads, hospitals, and schools. Reconstruction is hampered by lack of funding, ongoing insecurity, and international sanctions.

Demographic Shifts: War-induced population movements have altered sectarian and ethnic balances in key regions, creating new tensions and complicating future reconciliation efforts.

Institutional Decay: State institutions have largely collapsed or become hollowed out, with limited capacity to provide basic services, enforce law, or manage reconstruction.