Note: Background information is compiled from open-source research and analysis. For detailed assessments, see linked one-pager documents below.
Post-Assad Security Landscape: Following the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024, Syria has fragmented into multiple zones of control with competing armed factions vying for territorial dominance.
Major Armed Groups:
Primary Flashpoints: Clashes frequently occur along factional boundaries, particularly in Aleppo countryside, Deir ez-Zor, and areas surrounding displacement camps like al-Hol.
Violence Patterns: Post-regime violence includes inter-factional fighting, revenge killings, ISIS attacks on security forces, and tribal conflicts over resource control.
Economic Collapse: Syria's economy has contracted by more than 60% since 2011, with currency devaluation, hyperinflation, and widespread poverty.
Resource Control:
Currency Crisis: Syrian pound has lost over 95% of pre-war value; multiple exchange rates; dollarization in some regions; reliance on remittances.
Economic Activity: Formal economy largely collapsed; informal and black markets dominate; smuggling networks; war economy sustains armed factions; reconstruction minimal due to sanctions and insecurity.
Sanctions Impact: US and EU sanctions restrict reconstruction investment, complicate aid delivery, and limit banking access, though humanitarian exemptions exist.
Comprehensive assessment of Syria's captagon production, trafficking networks, and economic impact.
Governance Vacuum: The collapse of centralized Assad regime control has created a patchwork of competing governance structures, with no unified authority emerging.
De Facto Administrations:
Political Transition Challenges: Efforts at political transition face obstacles including factional competition, external interference, sectarian divisions, and absence of inclusive representation mechanisms.
International Engagement: UN-led Geneva process remains stalled; regional powers pursue competing political visions; reconstruction aid conditioned on political reforms.
External Involvement: Multiple regional and international actors maintain military presence and political influence in Syria's post-Assad landscape.
Turkey:
Iran:
Russia:
United States:
Israel:
Gulf States: Gradually re-engaging diplomatically; Arab League readmitted Syria in 2023; limited reconstruction investment pending political settlement.
Displacement Crisis: Syria faces one of the world's largest displacement crises with millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees in neighboring countries.
IDP Demographics:
Humanitarian Access: Aid delivery is hampered by factional control of territory, cross-border restrictions, damaged infrastructure, and security threats to aid workers.
Critical Needs: Food insecurity affects majority of population; medical services severely degraded; water and sanitation infrastructure damaged; education systems disrupted; protection concerns especially for women and children.
Infrastructure Collapse: Years of conflict have devastated critical infrastructure including power grids, water systems, roads, hospitals, and schools. Reconstruction is hampered by lack of funding, ongoing insecurity, and international sanctions.
Demographic Shifts: War-induced population movements have altered sectarian and ethnic balances in key regions, creating new tensions and complicating future reconciliation efforts.
Institutional Decay: State institutions have largely collapsed or become hollowed out, with limited capacity to provide basic services, enforce law, or manage reconstruction.