🇾🇪 YEMEN STABILITY INDEX

Ansar Allah (Houthis) is a Zaidi Shia movement that controls northern Yemen including the capital Sana'a. Originally a tribal-religious insurgency from Sa'dah province, the group has evolved into a de facto government controlling territory home to roughly 70% of Yemen's population.

Military Capabilities:

• Ballistic Missiles: Iran-supplied Burkan and Toufan series with ranges up to 2,000+ km, capable of striking Saudi Arabia and Israel
• Anti-Ship Missiles: C-802 variants and indigenous designs used against commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
• Drone Fleet: Samad and Qasef-series UAVs for reconnaissance and kamikaze attacks; long-range Jaffa drones demonstrated against Israel
• Naval Mines: Deployment in Red Sea shipping lanes, threatening international maritime traffic
• Air Defense: Increasingly sophisticated systems reportedly engaging U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones

Iranian Support: Tehran provides weapons, training, and strategic guidance through IRGC Quds Force advisors. Smuggling networks deliver components via Omani and Somali routes despite the UN arms embargo.

The Houthi Red Sea campaign began in November 2023 in declared solidarity with Gaza. Attacks on commercial shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have disrupted one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, through which approximately 12-15% of global trade transits.

Impact on Global Shipping:

• Rerouting: Major shipping lines (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and significant fuel costs
• Insurance Costs: War risk premiums for Red Sea transit surged from 0.07% to over 1% of hull value
• Suez Canal Impact: Canal transits dropped 50-70% during peak disruption periods, costing Egypt billions in lost revenue
• Total Attacks: 100+ attacks on commercial vessels since November 2023, including missiles, drones, and attempted boarding

International Response:

• Operation Prosperity Guardian: U.S.-led multinational naval task force to protect shipping
• U.S./UK Strikes: Direct military strikes on Houthi missile sites, radar installations, and weapons depots
• EU ASPIDES: European naval mission focused on defensive escort operations

Yemen faces the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with over a decade of conflict producing catastrophic conditions affecting the majority of the population.

Key Indicators:

• Population in Need: 21.6 million people (two-thirds of the population) require humanitarian assistance
• Food Insecurity: 17.4 million people are food insecure; 4.5 million severely food insecure approaching famine conditions
• Displacement: 4.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), many displaced multiple times
• Healthcare Collapse: Only 50% of health facilities remain functional; cholera, dengue, and measles outbreaks recur
• Child Malnutrition: 2.2 million children under 5 acutely malnourished; 540,000 severely malnourished
• Education: 2 million children out of school; 2,916 schools damaged, destroyed, or occupied by armed groups

Funding Crisis: The UN humanitarian response plan for Yemen consistently receives less than 50% of required funding, forcing cuts to food rations and health services at a time of escalating need.

Yemen is effectively divided between multiple competing authorities with no unified government controlling the entire country.

Key Political Actors:

• Houthis (Ansar Allah): Control the north including Sana'a, Sa'dah, and Hodeidah; function as a de facto government with ministries, courts, and taxation
• Presidential Leadership Council (PLC): Internationally recognized government based in Aden, formed April 2022 as an 8-member council chaired by Rashad al-Alimi
• Southern Transitional Council (STC): UAE-backed separatist movement controlling parts of southern Yemen; seeks restoration of independent South Yemen
• AQAP: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula exploits governance vacuums in eastern and central Yemen; weakened but not eliminated
• ISIS-Yemen: Smaller presence, primarily in al-Bayda province; conducts sporadic attacks

Saudi-Houthi Negotiations: Saudi Arabia has pursued direct talks with the Houthis since 2023, signaling a strategic shift from military intervention toward diplomatic engagement. An Omani-mediated framework includes prisoner exchanges, economic confidence-building measures, and discussions toward a comprehensive ceasefire. However, the Houthi Red Sea campaign has complicated these negotiations.

UN Peace Efforts: UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg continues efforts toward a nationwide ceasefire and inclusive political process, though the multi-party nature of the conflict and external interests make comprehensive agreement elusive.

The Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen in March 2015 (Operation Decisive Storm) to restore the internationally recognized government after the Houthi takeover of Sana'a.

Current Dynamics:

• Saudi Arabia: Shifted from military campaign to diplomatic engagement; seeks an exit strategy while maintaining influence; April 2023 ceasefire largely held
• UAE: Withdrew most forces but maintains influence through proxy militias (Giants Brigades, STC forces, Security Belt) in southern Yemen
• Iran: Primary Houthi backer; provides weapons, training, and strategic guidance; uses Yemen as leverage in broader regional competition
• Oman: Key mediator between Saudi Arabia and Houthis; hosts shuttle diplomacy and communication channels
• U.S.: Re-designated Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group (Jan 2024); conducts strikes on Houthi military targets in response to Red Sea attacks

Saudi-Iran Rapprochement: The March 2023 Saudi-Iran deal (brokered by China) to restore diplomatic relations had direct implications for Yemen, with both sides signaling willingness to de-escalate proxy competition. However, the October 2023 Gaza war and subsequent Houthi Red Sea campaign tested this dynamic.

Economic Dimensions: Saudi Arabia provides significant financial support to the PLC government, including fuel shipments, central bank deposits, and humanitarian aid. Houthi control of Hodeidah port and Sana'a airport remain key negotiating points.