🇨🇴 COLOMBIA STABILITY INDEX

Colombia faces ongoing armed conflict with the National Liberation Army (ELN) — the largest remaining guerrilla group — and multiple FARC dissident factions that rejected the 2016 peace accord. The ELN has expanded operations in border regions with Venezuela and Ecuador, and conducts regular bombings, kidnappings, and attacks on infrastructure.

Catatumbo Offensive (2025): A major ELN offensive in the Norte de Santander department in early 2025 displaced over 30,000 people and killed dozens, severely straining the Petro government's "total peace" process.

President Gustavo Petro — Colombia's first left-wing president — took office in 2022 with an ambitious "total peace" (paz total) agenda seeking negotiated settlements with all armed groups simultaneously. The strategy has faced severe challenges as armed groups have exploited ceasefires to rearm and expand territory.

U.S.-Colombia Relations: Petro has distanced Colombia from its traditionally close partnership with the U.S., criticizing the war on drugs and U.S. foreign policy. Relations became tense in 2025 when Petro briefly refused to accept deportation flights, triggering a tariff standoff with the Trump administration before backing down.

Colombia is the United States' closest security partner in South America, receiving billions in military and counter-narcotics assistance since Plan Colombia (2000). U.S. military advisors remain present. However, the Petro government has been ambivalent about continuing the coca eradication-focused approach, preferring crop substitution.

Coca cultivation reached record levels under Petro, raising U.S. concerns and generating Congressional criticism of continued aid. Colombia remains the world's largest cocaine producer.

Colombia has one of the world's largest internally displaced populations — over 8 million people — accumulated from decades of armed conflict. New displacement continues as ELN and dissident factions conduct operations in rural areas. The Venezuelan migration crisis has added over 2.9 million Venezuelan refugees to Colombia's population.

Colombia hosts more Venezuelan refugees than any other country, straining public services in border departments like Norte de Santander, La Guajira, and Arauca.