🇧🇷 BRAZIL STABILITY INDEX

Brazil's democracy survived a serious stress test following the October 2022 election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On January 8, 2023, Bolsonaro supporters stormed and ransacked the Presidential Palace, Congress, and Supreme Court in Brasília — echoing January 6 in the U.S. The attacks were suppressed; hundreds were convicted.

Democratic consolidation has continued under Lula, but political polarization remains extreme. The military's institutional loyalty to civilian government was tested during the Bolsonaro era and remains a factor in Brazil's democratic equation.

Brazil's criminal landscape is dominated by powerful drug trafficking organizations: the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), based in São Paulo, and Comando Vermelho (CV), based in Rio de Janeiro. Both have expanded internationally into neighboring countries and across Africa and Europe as major cocaine exporters.

Rio de Janeiro's favelas remain contested terrain between drug trafficking factions, militias (armed former police groups), and law enforcement. Annual homicide rates in Brazil exceed 40,000. Police violence — including extrajudicial killings — is a significant human rights concern.

The Amazon represents a strategic security domain as well as a global climate asset. Illegal mining (garimpeiros), drug trafficking, and land grabbing drive deforestation and conflict with Indigenous communities. Brazil's military conducts operations in the Amazon to combat illegal mining and trafficking.

Lula has reversed Bolsonaro-era deforestation policies, significantly reducing Amazon deforestation rates since 2023. Brazil's environmental credibility is a central element of its international diplomatic strategy, including hosting COP30 in Belém in 2025.

Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and a G20 member. Under Lula, Brazil has pursued an active multilateral foreign policy, strengthening ties with China, the Global South, and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Brazil's oil sector — anchored by Petrobras — has expanded significantly with massive pre-sal deepwater discoveries.

Fiscal pressures remain significant. Lula's social spending programs have increased the deficit, leading to currency and market volatility. The fiscal framework is a central concern for investors and credit rating agencies.