🇮🇷 IRAN PROTESTS TRACKER

Iran's nuclear program remains a critical regional security concern. Following U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment activities.

Current Status (2026):

• Enrichment Levels: Iran has enriched uranium up to 60% purity (weapons-grade is 90%), with stockpiles exceeding JCPOA limits
• Centrifuge Installations: Advanced IR-6 centrifuges installed at Natanz and Fordow facilities
• IAEA Access: Limited inspections; Iran removed surveillance cameras in 2022
• Breakout Time: Estimated at weeks to months for sufficient weapons-grade material
• Negotiations: Indirect talks continue but remain stalled over sanctions relief

Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, with ranges capable of striking Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, and parts of Europe. Iran has also become a major producer and exporter of combat drones.

Key Systems:

• Shahab-3: 1,300 km range, liquid-fuel ballistic missile
• Sejjil-2: 2,000 km range, solid-fuel (harder to intercept)
• Kheibar Shekan: 1,450 km range, hypersonic glide vehicle capability
• Shahed-136 Drones: Kamikaze UAVs used by Russia in Ukraine and by proxies
• Mohajer-6: Armed reconnaissance drone with 200 km range

Regional Impact: Iran supplies missiles and drones to Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthis (Yemen), and Iraqi militias, enabling asymmetric warfare against Israel and Gulf states.

Iran's "Axis of Resistance" is a network of state and non-state actors across the Middle East that receive military, financial, and political support from Tehran. This network enables Iran to project power and conduct asymmetric warfare while maintaining plausible deniability.

Key Proxy Groups:

• Hezbollah (Lebanon): Most powerful non-state actor; 150,000+ rockets/missiles; receives $700M+ annually from Iran
• Houthis (Yemen): Control northern Yemen; launched 200+ attacks on Red Sea shipping (2023-2024)
• Popular Mobilization Forces (Iraq): Coalition of Shia militias integrated into Iraqi security forces
• Hamas & Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza): Receive weapons, training, and funding despite ideological differences
• Syrian Government: Iran provides military advisors, arms, and billions in economic aid

Strategic Purpose: Proxies allow Iran to pressure adversaries (Israel, Saudi Arabia, U.S. forces) without direct confrontation, maintain a forward defense posture, and expand regional influence.

Iran faces the most comprehensive sanctions regime in modern history, targeting its energy sector, banking system, shipping, and military procurement. U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign (2018-present) has severely constrained Iran's economy.

Key Sanctions Categories:

• Energy Sector: Oil exports fell from 2.5M bpd (2017) to ~1.5M bpd (2024); buyers face secondary sanctions
• Banking & Finance: Cut off from SWIFT (2018); limited access to international financial system
• IRGC Designation: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps designated as Foreign Terrorist Organization (2019)
• Technology & Dual-Use: Restrictions on advanced computing, aerospace, and industrial equipment
• Humanitarian Exemptions: Food, medicine, and medical devices exempt but payment challenges persist

Economic Impact: Rial depreciation (98% since 2018), 40%+ inflation, GDP contraction, but regime has adapted through smuggling networks, cryptocurrency, and barter arrangements with China/Russia.

Iran's political system is a theocratic republic with ultimate authority vested in the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since 1989). Power struggles between reformists, moderates, and hardliners shape domestic and foreign policy.

Key Power Centers:

• Supreme Leader: Controls military, judiciary, state media; appoints half of Guardian Council
• President (Ebrahim Raisi, 2021-2024): Ultraconservative cleric; died in helicopter crash May 2024
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): Parallel military controlling ~40% of economy; Quds Force handles external operations
• Guardian Council: Vets all candidates; blocked thousands of reformists in 2020-2024 elections
• Parliament (Majles): Dominated by hardliners since 2020; limited influence on Supreme Leader decisions

Protests & Dissent: Mahsa Amini protests (2022-2023) represented the greatest challenge to the regime since 1979. Women's rights, economic grievances, and ethnic tensions (Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs) fuel ongoing unrest.

Succession Question: Khamenei (85 years old) has no clear successor; IRGC may play kingmaker role.